The franchise piece. Florida is the clear anchor — #4 KenPom with the #1 offensive rim rate in the entire field and elite defense at AdjD 91.6. You paid $724 over fair value, but that's the cost of the championship ceiling: 10% to win it all is the second-best odds in the field behind Arizona. The offensive rebounding (#2 nationally at 42.9%) is the X-factor — second-chance points travel well in March. Path is manageable through S16. The E8 matchup with Houston is the first real test.

Best value in the portfolio. Alabama at $1,850 against $2,631 fair value is a +30% discount — the clearest buy of the night. The story is pure offense: AdjO 129.0 ranks #3 nationally, and a turnover rate of 13.1% (#6) means they don't give it away. The concern is defense (AdjD 103.3, #64) which keeps them T4 and out of championship conversation. But with 73% S16 probability and a manageable Midwest draw, Alabama is the sneaky floor of this portfolio — they'll cash in the first two rounds and make a real run at the Sweet 16 payout.

First chop is in. Beat South Florida 83-79 in the first round. Louisville at $1,500 is the most structurally interesting buy — KP #17 going as a #6 seed, which means the committee buried them. AdjO 125.3 (#12) with elite rim metrics on both ends (#29 off, #19 def) makes them legitimately dangerous. One more win to break even at the Sweet 16. Next up: Round of 32.

First chop is in. Routed Hawai'i 97-78 in the first round. Arkansas's AdjO 127.5 (#5 nationally) paired with the #2 turnover rate in the field (12.5%) is a genuinely elite offensive profile — they score efficiently and don't give it away. Two more wins needed to break even at the Elite 8. Next up: Round of 32 matchup.