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Calcutta 2026  ·  Alabama Round of 64  ·  March 20, 2026 Editorial

Close the Door or Get Swept Out of It

Alabama survived Hofstra. The final score says comfortable. The middle forty minutes say something else entirely. This team has a closing problem — and Sunday's opponent won't be as forgiving.

By Chip Devereux Senior Contributor, Bracket Markets & Auction Theory Alabama 90  ·  Hofstra 70  ·  Midwest Region R64

Here is the thing about a 20-point win that nobody will tell you at the bar afterward: Alabama trailed Hofstra by 10 in the first half. A 13-seed from the Colonial Athletic Association, a team that entered the tournament 0-4 all-time in NCAA Tournament games, a team ranked 329th in pace — that team led Alabama by double digits in Tampa on Friday afternoon. And if you watched only the box score update at the final buzzer, you'd never know it happened.

The Crimson Tide won 90-70. Labaron Philon Jr. scored 29 points. The first chop is banked. Those are facts, and they are good facts. But buried underneath the final margin is a game that exposed every single thing the internet has been worried about with this Alabama team heading into March — and a few things nobody was worried about that they absolutely should be.

90
Alabama pts
28-18
Hofstra led
29
Philon pts
19-4
Closing run

The Game in Two Acts

#4 Alabama vs #13 Hofstra  ·  Midwest Region  ·  R64
Alabama 90Hofstra 70
Key stat: Hofstra led 28-18 midway through the first half. Alabama outscored them 72-42 the rest of the way — including a 19-4 closing run.

For the first twelve minutes, Hofstra did exactly what Speedy Claxton designed them to do. They slowed the game to a crawl, forced Alabama into half-court possessions, and exploited the Crimson Tide's defensive indifference on the glass. A 16-2 Pride run pushed the lead to 28-18, and suddenly Benchmark International Arena had the unmistakable hum of an upset in progress. Alabama hadn't scored in nearly three minutes. The nation's highest-scoring offense looked lost against a team that ranks 317th in adjusted tempo.

Then Aiden Sherrell happened. The stretch big drained a triple, threw down a second-chance alley-oop, and provided the energy injection that Alabama desperately needed. The Tide closed the half on a tear, reclaiming the lead 37-35 on a Philon bucket with seconds remaining. That's the good news.

"A 10-point deficit against a 13-seed is not a wake-up call. It is a fire alarm. The question is whether Alabama heard it — or just hit snooze."

The bad news: the second half wasn't the coronation the score suggests. Alabama came out of the locker room on a 12-4 run, building a 49-39 lead, and seemed ready to pull away. But Hofstra kept answering. The Pride cut it to five points on multiple occasions in the second half's middle stretch, refusing to go away quietly. Cruz Davis, despite a rough shooting night at 6-of-17, kept creating. Alabama's defense kept bending.

It wasn't until the final four minutes that Alabama truly slammed the door. Philon — who scored 21 of his 29 in the second half — buried a dagger three-pointer to push the lead to double digits for good, and the Tide rattled off a 19-4 closing run that transformed a five-point slugfest into a 20-point rout. The final score is a mirage. This game was competitive for 36 minutes. Alabama won it in the last four.

The Philon Problem (It's a Good Problem)

Let's give Labaron Philon Jr. his flowers. Twenty-nine points, eight rebounds, seven assists, four steals. He was a rebound away from a triple-double. He set a record, breaking James "Hollywood" Robinson's mark for most points scored by a sophomore in a season with 665 and counting. He was the best player on the floor by a margin that grew wider with every possession in the second half.

But here's the uncomfortable truth: Philon had to be that good because nobody else was. Not consistently, anyway. Sherrell gave Alabama 15 points and a career-high 15 rebounds — a genuinely heroic effort on the glass. But beyond those two? The supporting cast was uneven. Without Aden Holloway, Alabama's perimeter depth is thinner than it looks, and the shooting slumps that plagued Wrightsell, Allen, and Mallette down the SEC Tournament stretch didn't magically disappear in Tampa.

Against Hofstra, that's survivable. Against Texas Tech on Sunday, Philon needing to generate 30 every night is not a sustainable model. It's a tightrope. And tightropes don't get wider as the tournament goes on.

The Concerns Are Real

Defense Red Flag
Alabama ranks 356th out of 365 D1 teams in points allowed per game at 83.5. No tournament team gives up more. They allowed Hofstra — a team that averages 74.5 points — to stay within striking distance for most of the game. Against a better backcourt, those five-point deficits become ties. Against an elite backcourt, they become leads.
Holloway's Absence Red Flag
Alabama shot 29% from three in the three regular-season games without Holloway, a massive drop from their 35.8% season average. Holloway's 74 made threes led the country's No. 1 three-point offense. His 44% deep shooting is irreplaceable. The offensive rating drops from 129.9 with him to 116.7 without. That gap is the size of a tournament run.
Closing Games Concern
Alabama closed on a 19-4 run to pad the final margin, but the game was a five-point affair with four minutes left. Against a 13-seed. In the Round of 64. This team has shown a pattern of letting opponents hang around — the SEC Tournament loss to Ole Miss (80-79) being the most recent and painful example. When you can't close, March closes for you.
Rebounding Concern
Alabama allows the second-most offensive rebounds per game of any team in college basketball. Hofstra ranks 51st nationally in offensive rebounding percentage and hurt the Tide on the glass early. Sherrell's 15-rebound performance masked a systemic problem. Without his heroics, the first-half deficit could have been worse.

The internet saw all of this coming. Before tip-off, SI wrote that the Hofstra matchup was "more complicated than it looks." Yahoo Sports had Alabama on "upset alert." Bleacher Report flagged the style clash between Alabama's breakneck pace and Hofstra's grind-it-out defense. ClutchPoints warned that without Holloway, the Tide was "noticeably less intimidating." Every single one of those concerns manifested in the first half.

Alabama survived because Philon is a transcendent talent and because Hofstra, for all their defensive discipline, simply couldn't sustain their offensive output against Alabama's depth and length in the second half. Cruz Davis going 6-of-17 was not part of Speedy Claxton's plan. If Davis shoots even 40% from the floor, this is a two-possession game in the final minutes. That should terrify anyone holding an Alabama ticket.

The Importance of Closing

March is full of teams that play well for 35 minutes. It is empty of teams that play well for 35 minutes and then survive the last five on vibes. Alabama has now demonstrated a pattern: they can fall behind early, claw back, and eventually overwhelm opponents with sheer offensive talent. But they have also demonstrated a pattern of leaving the door cracked open — and in the NCAA Tournament, that door only needs to stay cracked for one possession.

The Ole Miss loss told us this. Alabama led for most of that SEC Tournament quarterfinal and lost 80-79 because they could not close. The Hofstra game told us this again. Up 13 in the second half, and Hofstra cut it to five. Twice. Three times. Alabama kept inviting the Pride back in, kept turning defense into a suggestion rather than a mandate, and kept relying on individual brilliance to bail out collective lapses.

"You do not win a national championship by outscoring your problems. Eventually, you have to stop someone. Alabama has not yet proven it can do that when it matters most."

That final 19-4 run was spectacular. It was also necessary because Alabama spent the preceding ten minutes allowing Hofstra to hang around in a game they should have been putting away. There is a difference between a team that wins by 20 because they dominated for 40 minutes and a team that wins by 20 because they sprinted the last four minutes of a close game. Alabama is the latter. And the latter has an expiration date.

What's Next: Texas Tech on Sunday

Midwest Region · Round of 32 · Sunday
#4 Alabama vs #5 Texas Tech
The challenge: Texas Tech boasts wins over 1-seeds Duke and Arizona, plus 2-seeds Houston and Iowa State. Their résumé is as imposing as anyone's in the field. Christian Anderson, a Third-Team All-American, averages 18.9 points and 7.6 assists — third in the nation. The Red Raiders rank fifth nationally in both made threes and three-point percentage. They are everything Hofstra was not: fast, deep, and armed with the kind of backcourt that will attack Alabama's 356th-ranked defense without mercy.

The silver lining: Texas Tech lost All-American forward JT Toppin to a torn ACL in February, which limits their frontcourt depth and puts more burden on Anderson. If Alabama can force Texas Tech into one-dimensional offense and win the boards the way Sherrell did on Friday, the Tide's offensive firepower should be enough.

The honest take: CBS Sports' model projects Texas Tech to win. Saturday Down South predicts Alabama's run ends Sunday. Jay Bilas picked the Tide to advance but called them a "shotmaking" team — which is analyst code for "they're good when they're good and awful when they're not." The oddsmakers have this as a toss-up, and for once, the oddsmakers might be right.

The Calcutta angle: Alabama was purchased at $1,850 against a fair value of $3,058 — the most lopsided underpricing of any team over a thousand dollars. The first chop is banked. One more win gets them to the Sweet 16 and within striking distance of profit. A loss Sunday and RE Fund walks away with one chop and a $261 deficit. The math is simple. The basketball is not.
Texas Tech is no joke · This is a genuine coin flip

The Bottom Line

Alabama advanced. The chop is in. Philon was magnificent. Those are the things that matter tonight.

But tomorrow morning, when the adrenaline fades and the film goes on, Nate Oats will see a team that trailed a 13-seed by 10, that couldn't sustain defensive intensity for more than a few possessions at a time, that relied on one player to manufacture 21 second-half points, and that needed a late-game explosion to turn a five-point game into a comfortable final margin. He will see a team that has all the talent in the world and none of the consistency that talent is supposed to produce.

Against Hofstra, the talent was enough. Against Texas Tech, it might not be. And if Alabama can't learn to close the door when it counts — not in the last four minutes, but starting in the first four — then Sunday will be the day the Midwest bracket stops being kind to the Crimson Tide.

The chop is banked. The concerns are real. And Sunday is coming.


Analysis based on first-round results from March 20, 2026. Stats and game data via ESPN, SI, and TideSports. Defensive rankings via KenPom adjusted efficiency ratings. Calcutta valuations from RE Fund auction results recorded March 18, 2026. Previous column: Two Down, a Whole Lot to Go.